Nate Silver

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Scott Brown Changes the Senate Math
Scott Brown Changes the
Senate Math
NATE SILVER
Feb 23, 2010 7:56 AM CST

Scott Brown Changes the Senate Math

Moderate GOP votes up for grabs mean 56 could be Dems' new 60

(Newser) - Yesterday's Senate vote to end debate on the jobs bill showed that losing the supermajority may not be such a disaster for the Democrats after all, writes Nate Silver. Scott Brown joined four other moderate Republicans in voting to end a filibuster on Harry Reid's jobs bill, suggesting that a...

Health Care Still Alive? Nate Counts the Votes

Silver adds up House Dems who would support Senate bill

(Newser) - The math is pretty bleak for passage of the Senate version of health-care reform in the House—the last-ditch effort being considered to save it—but it’s not impossible that 218 votes could be wrangled, Nate Silver writes. One big hurdle is the “Stupak block,” which Silver...

Obama Will Urge House to Send Him Health Bill

Ramped up State of the Union indicates Senate-skipping strategy

(Newser) - The White House has essentially accepted the reality of a Scott Brown win in Massachusetts and is orchestrating some health care reform “ping-pong,” Nate Silver writes, urging the House to vote on the Senate bill as it stands so it can go straight to President Obama’s desk...

Brown a 74% Favorite in Mass. Senate Race
 Brown a 74% Favorite 
 in Mass. Senate Race 
Nate Silver
Jan 19, 2010 7:52 AM CST

Brown a 74% Favorite in Mass. Senate Race

Flood of polls come in favoring GOP

(Newser) - Scott Brown is now a 3:1 favorite to win today’s Senate race in Massachusetts, according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s much-vaunted forecasting model. A host of recent polls give Coakley steadily worsening numbers, so the site, which correctly predicted all 35 Senate races in 2008, rates the race as...

Dems Could Actually Lose Kennedy Seat
Dems Could Actually Lose Kennedy Seat
Nate Silver
Jan 13, 2010 8:58 AM CST

Dems Could Actually Lose Kennedy Seat

Swing voters weak on Coakley—even some who back health care

(Newser) - Turnout remains the most important factor in the Massachusetts Senate election, but it’s not the only factor. The latest Rasmussen poll has Coakley ahead by just 2 points, despite an electorate that gives Barack Obama a 57% approval rating, notes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. In an election widely...

Divorce on Rise in States That Ban Gay Marriage
Divorce on Rise in States
That Ban Gay Marriage
Nate Silver
Jan 12, 2010 12:08 PM CST

Divorce on Rise in States That Ban Gay Marriage

Massachusetts has country's lowest rate

(Newser) - The people arguing that gay marriage erodes the institution of marriage might be surprised to know that divorce rates are generally higher in states that have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage in place. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com ran a quick analysis on state-by-state divorce rates and found that, though...

Gaffe May Sink Reid in Nevada
 Gaffe May Sink Reid in Nevada 
Nate Silver
Jan 11, 2010 12:06 PM CST

Gaffe May Sink Reid in Nevada

Majority leader can't afford to lose any black voters in 2010

(Newser) - Harry Reid’s already shaky reelection prospects just got a whole lot shakier, thanks to his observations on Barack Obama’s skin color. Reid isn’t facing a strong Republican opponent, but he’s been behind in the polls for a while now anyway, notes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com...

There's Not More Extremists, Just More Internet
There's Not More Extremists, Just More Internet
NATE SILVER
Dec 29, 2009 12:34 PM CST

There's Not More Extremists, Just More Internet

The fringes aren't more prevalent, but they are more visible

(Newser) - With all the left- and right-wing "extremism" out there, the media love pushing the narrative that "the country is coming apart at the seams! The center is dying!” But it’s not true, writes Nate Silver. A glance at long-running polls show Americans identify with the fringes...

Blue Dogs Top Dems' Most Valuable List
Blue Dogs Top Dems' Most Valuable List
Nate Silver
Dec 23, 2009 12:08 PM CST

Blue Dogs Top Dems' Most Valuable List

But others, like turncoat Parker Griffith, can feel free to take a hike

(Newser) - How worthless for Democrats was turncoat Rep. Parker Griffiths? To find out, Nate Silver created a formula for determining the Democrats’ MVP for the year in the House. Choosing 10 key votes, he counted how often each rep votes with the party, then adjusted the tally based on how conservative...

Even Obama Couldn't Have Sold the Public Option

But he could and should have prepared liberals better for defeat

(Newser) - Russ Feingold blamed the death of the public option in part on a “lack of support” from the White House, which made passing the option “an uphill struggle.” But Nate Silver isn’t sure there’s much Obama could have done. “I think the defeat of...

Nate Silver Battles Bill Killers
 Nate Silver Battles Bill Killers 
Dem-on-Dem Action
Dec 17, 2009 11:16 AM CST

Nate Silver Battles Bill Killers

Left-wing blogdom 'fracturing' over health care reform

(Newser) - Nate Silver launched into possibly the dorkiest blog feud ever last night, getting into a lengthy, heated policy debate with liberal bloggers who want to kill the Senate’s health care bill. Silver argues that Democrats will never have a better chance to pass reform, and that it would “...

Stop Whining, Liberals: Senate Bill Is Fine
Stop Whining, Liberals: Senate Bill Is Fine
Nate Silver
Dec 15, 2009 11:26 AM CST

Stop Whining, Liberals: Senate Bill Is Fine

Crunch the numbers, and you'll see it's way, way better than nothing

(Newser) - Progressives who oppose the Senate health care bill are “batshit crazy,” writes Nate Silver, because the bill is way, way better than nothing. Crunching the numbers over at FiveThirtyEight.com , Silver estimates that a family of four in the individual market making $54,000 a year could expect...

Joe Lieberman Wants Liberals to Suffer
Joe Lieberman Wants
Liberals to Suffer
Nate Silver
Dec 14, 2009 1:19 PM CST

Joe Lieberman Wants Liberals to Suffer

Nelson and Lieberman reject 'Br'er Rabbit compromise'

(Newser) - Joe Lieberman rejected the Democrats’ Medicare buy-in compromise mostly because “his objective really is to make liberals suffer,” writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Lieberman knew that though they might have wailed and moaned, liberals would have been happy with the Medicare expansion. “It was a br’...

Many Health Care Naysayers Are Liberal
 Many Health Care 
 Naysayers Are 
 Liberal 
Nate Silver
Dec 7, 2009 11:27 AM CST

Many Health Care Naysayers Are Liberal

Surprisingly large number say bill doesn't go far enough

(Newser) - Polls show that the health care reform bill is pretty unpopular, but what they don't always show is how much of the opposition actually comes from the left. In a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll, 46% said they opposed “the health care reform proposals presently being discussed,” versus 34% in...

Most Red State Dems Can Vote for Health Care
Most Red State Dems Can Vote for Health Care
Nate Silver
Nov 20, 2009 9:27 AM CST

Most Red State Dems Can Vote for Health Care

Only Blanche Lincoln faces 2010 fight, and she'll be a tough sell

(Newser) - The main reason Senate Democrats have a prayer of passing health care reform is that not many of them are up for reelection next year, says Nate Silver. Only a third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2010, and most of the Democrats in that group come from...

Should Democrats Panic? Yes, but Only 'a Little'
Should Democrats Panic? Yes, but Only 'a Little'
nate silver
Nov 13, 2009 8:44 AM CST

Should Democrats Panic? Yes, but Only 'a Little'

Party's in 'fairly bad shape,' but there's time to rebound

(Newser) - A new Gallup poll shows Republicans ahead of Democrats in a generic House ballot, a reversal of political fortune from October. Is it time for the party to panic? "Maybe a little," writes Nate Silver . "My 30,000-foot view is that between the pressures of the jobs...

Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama
 Blame Weak 
 Candidates, 
 Not Obama 
Nate Silver
Nov 4, 2009 8:36 AM CST

Blame Weak Candidates, Not Obama

Polling guru gives a post-mortem on last night's elections

(Newser) - The numbers are in, now it's time to make sense of them. Nate Silver breaks down last night's election results:
  • Don’t blame Obama; Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine were probably just weak candidates. In New Jersey, 57% of voters approved of Obama, but 27% of those supporters voted Republican
...

GOP: It's Time to Rebrand to 'Conservative'

New name may have greater pull than tainted Repub label

(Newser) - Candidates on both sides are doing their best to hide their party affiliation but it's the Republicans who have the most to worry about, writes Nate Silver . "The Democratic brand is marginal in about half the country, but the Republican brand is radioactive in about two-thirds of it ,"...

Bank Reform Shatters Usual Party Lines
Bank Reform Shatters Usual Party Lines
NATE SILVER
Oct 22, 2009 11:37 AM CDT

Bank Reform Shatters Usual Party Lines

Next big domestic issue will be 'fascinating' to watch

(Newser) - Once health care reform is “settled,” Nate Silver writes, the White House will be searching for a new domestic issue. Card check is too hard, immigration will have to wait for 2012’s “younger, more diverse electorate,” and gay rights is a slog. The winner, in...

Why the Public Option's Still Alive
 Why the Public 
 Option's Still Alive 
Nate Silver
Oct 21, 2009 12:57 PM CDT

Why the Public Option's Still Alive

Polls, time, and activism keep popular concept on the table

(Newser) - Reports of the public option’s demise look to have been exaggerated. Nate Silver breaks down what revived it at FiveThirtyEight.com:
  •  “The tireless, and occasionally tiresome,” advocacy from liberal bloggers and interest groups.
  • The CBO thinks it will save money.
  • The shift of focus from the
...

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