Nate Silver – News Stories About Nate Silver - Page 4

Huntsman's
NH Surge:
Too Little,
Too Late

nate silver

Jan 9, 2012 11:20 AM CST

Huntsman's NH Surge: Too Little, Too Late

Nate Silver expects him to grab 15.6% of the vote, but that's not enough

(Newser) - With a matter of hours to go before the New Hampshire primary, Jon Huntsman appears to finally be seeing a surge of his own—but it may be too little, too late, observes Nate Silver in the New York Times . Recent polls are looking good for the former Utah governor:...

Why the Heck Is Perry Still In?

Nate Silver

Jan 5, 2012 1:55 PM CST

Why the Heck Is Perry Still In?

Nate Silver ponders whether the answer is political or personal

(Newser) - Normally when candidates say they're "reassessing" their campaign , they're done for, but for some reason Rick Perry is soldiering on . Why? Nate Silver of the New York Times contemplates that question today, posing two exaggerated hypothetical scenarios: Either a) It was personal. Perry prayed on the decision,...

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

Nate Silver

Jan 3, 2012 10:32 AM CST

In Iowa, Expect the Unexpected

...And a lot of spin afterward

(Newser) - History suggests that it doesn’t matter who actually wins tonight in Iowa—it matters who exceeds expectations, or fails to meet them. The media is always flabbergasted by strange Iowa finishes, but they shouldn’t be, writes Nate Silver of the New York Times , because thanks to unreliable polls...

Careful, Mitt: You Could Lose

Nate Silver

Dec 27, 2011 11:19 AM CST

Careful, Mitt: You Could Lose

Nate Silver doesn't think it's especially likely, but it's possible

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom has crowned Mitt Romney the inevitable Republican nominee. His stock on Intrade shot up to 72% last night, and one of his strategists recently boasted that he couldn’t “see any scenario where we’re not the nominee." But calm down guys, writes Nate Silver in...

Obama Is the Underdog

Nate Silver

Nov 3, 2011 9:40 AM CDT

Obama Is the Underdog

If economy falters, and Mitt Romney is the nominee, watch out

(Newser) - It’s too early for Nate Silver’s usual granular state-by-state election calculus, so the New York Times political prediction guru is looking at the big picture. Obama faces three main challenges: voters think he’s not up to the task, they’re terrified of the economy, and they’re...

Pundits, If You're So Sure Cain Will Lose, Take This Bet

nate silver

Oct 27, 2011 12:37 PM CDT

Pundits, If You're So Sure Cain Will Lose, Take This Bet

If he proves you wrong, promise to stop writing about politics: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Modern politics has never seen the likes of Herman Cain, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He has few "fundamentals"—key GOP endorsements, big fundraising, etc.—and yet he's been at or near the top of polls for a while now. He is, in...

Stats Can't Explain Sox Collapse

Nate Silver

Sep 29, 2011 7:37 AM CDT

Stats Can't Explain Sox Collapse

It was spectacularly unlikely

(Newser) - “It’s hard to describe how epic the Red Sox collapse was,” writes Nate Silver in the New York Times , calling it statistically like Bill Buckner’s famous botched play of 1986 “multiplied by itself two or three times over." On Sept. 3, the Red Sox...

Hurricane Irene:
And the Cost to
NYC Will Be...?

nate silver

Aug 26, 2011 1:59 PM CDT

Hurricane Irene: And the Cost to NYC Will Be...?

A 'bank shot' striking NYC would cost around $35B: Nate Silver

(Newser) - If Hurricane Irene rolls into New York City—the nation's most densely populated area—it could threaten millions of lives, but also cost tens of billions of dollars and "tangibly increase the chance of a recession," Nate Silver writes on the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog. "...

S&P's Ratings
Are Worthless

Nate Silver

Aug 8, 2011 12:45 PM CDT

S&P's Ratings Are Worthless

Nate Silver runs the numbers, and scoffs at ratings firm

(Newser) - Don’t put too much stock in Standard & Poor’s much ballyhooed credit ratings—because they’re astonishingly bad. Nate Silver of the New York Times ran an analysis on S&P’s ratings from five years ago, and found that, had you heeded them, they “would have...

Crash May Have Been Worse Than Thought

nate silver

Aug 4, 2011 12:57 PM CDT

Crash May Have Been Worse Than Thought

Nate Silver sees bad things in long-term GDP graph

(Newser) - Need a pick-me-up given today's depressing stock news ? Then be advised that Nate Silver's column in the New York Times is not for you. The stats guru plots GDP going back to 1877 and sees signs that our recent "economic crash was even worse than economists...

Obama Could
Have Gotten
a Better Deal

Nate Silver

Aug 2, 2011 7:35 AM CDT

Obama Could Have Gotten a Better Deal

Nate Silver says the vote tally shows the Republicans cleaned up

(Newser) - The debt ceiling deal President Obama struck with Republicans passed the House by a wide margin, which leads Nate Silver to one conclusion: Obama gave up too much. “Mr. Obama could have shifted the deal tangibly toward the left and still gotten a bill through without too much of...

Betting Odds for Top 4
GOP Candidates

NATE SILVER

Jun 24, 2011 7:50 AM CDT

Betting Odds for Top 4 GOP Candidates

It's Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, and Bachmann (in that order): Nate Silver

(Newser) - With the GOP candidates for 2012 out of the gates, statistics whiz Nate Silver sets the odds in the first of a 3-part series for the New York Times . The longshots will be looked at in later installments. His top four:

Mitt Romney: 3-2 against—a 40% chance of winning

...

Governors Have a Big Advantage in Primaries

Nate Silver

Jun 15, 2011 1:58 PM CDT

Governors Have a Big Advantage in Primaries

Nate Silver breaks down the statistics

(Newser) - Conventional wisdom states that governors have an advantage over senators in presidential primaries—but Nate Silver decided to run the statistics just to be sure. The result? “The advantage may be even more powerful than you think,” he writes on his FiveThirtyEight blog at the New York Times....

If Trump Is on Top,
GOP Needs Fresh Blood

nate silver

Apr 13, 2011 2:09 PM CDT

If Trump Is on Top, GOP Needs Fresh Blood

Maybe it's time for Chris Christie or Paul Ryan to take another look: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Attention Chris Christie, or maybe Paul Ryan? Donald Trump's strong showing in recent polls illustrates just how shaky the GOP's 2012 field is, writes Nate Silver at the New York Times . He breaks the candidates into three groups: The Fairfax Five (think establishment candidates) of Romney, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Barbour, and...

How Nate Silver Fills Out
His NCAA Bracket

March Madness

Mar 14, 2011 3:54 PM CDT

How Nate Silver Fills Out His NCAA Bracket

Famed political, baseball analyst winds up picking all the 1-seeds

(Newser) - Nate Silver is a famed political number-cruncher, and was once a revered baseball statistician. So when he goes to fill out his March Madness bracket, he doesn’t just pick whichever names sound good. Instead, the New York Times writer has analyzed data from all the tournament games dating back...

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers,
You're Not Worth Anything

NATE SILVER

Feb 13, 2011 6:41 AM CST

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers, You're Not Worth Anything

Stats guru Nate Silver does the math on HuffPo's bloggers

(Newser) - Huffington Post bloggers should stop whining about their lack of pay , even after the online site was bought by AOL for $315 million—they're just not worth it, writes stats king Nate Silver at the New York Times . Silver crunched the numbers and estimates that the median blog post is...

Come 2012,
Follow These Polls

nate silver

Nov 5, 2010 10:23 AM CDT

Come 2012, Follow These Polls

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he...

How Dems Could
Keep the House

nate silver

Nov 2, 2010 7:59 AM CDT

How Dems Could Keep the House

Polling inaccuracies might surprise us today

(Newser) - We keep hearing doom and gloom for the Democrats, and there’s a good chance that’s accurate, writes Nate Silver in the New York Times . But thanks to a few potential polling flaws, things could turn out differently; the Dems might even hang onto the House. Here’s why:...

No Way to
Predict Size of
GOP Gains

nate silver

Nov 1, 2010 12:35 PM CDT

No Way to Predict Size of GOP Gains

'Strange election' offers wide range of outcomes, says Nate Silver

(Newser) - Polls are showing a huge range of possible results for tomorrow, with generic ballots suggesting anything from a 15-point Republican lead to a 3-point Democratic lead. “The fact is that there’s not really any way to say who’s right,” writes FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver in...

Democrats
Pick Up Steam
in Senate Races

Nate Silver

Oct 14, 2010 1:27 PM CDT

Democrats Pick Up Steam in Senate Races

Reid and Angle a tossup, Manchin and Murray now favored

(Newser) - After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down...