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Where the Big Races Stand

polling roundup

Nov 1, 2010 7:58 AM CDT

Where the Big Races Stand

Rand Paul and Marco Rubio up big, Harry Reid, Sharron Angle too close to call

(Newser) - With T-Minus one day to the election, here's where the most-watched races in the country stand:

Harry Reid and Sharron Angle are locked in a dead heat; the latest Public Policy Polling survey has Angle squeaking ahead 47% to 46%.
Looks like harping on the Aqua Buddha incident didn't help

...

GOP Holds Lead
in Home Stretch

Scoreboard Update

Oct 20, 2010 8:44 AM CDT

GOP Holds Lead in Home Stretch

Enthusiasm gap leaves Democrats trailing in likely voters

(Newser) - Republicans are in the driver’s seat as the 2010 election winds down, despite a vigorous last-ditch push from Democrats, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll. Overall, registered voters narrowly prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled one, but among likely voters, Republicans hold a 50%-43% edge. In...

Democrats Harry Reid, Joe Manchin, Chris Coons Pick Up Steam in Senate Races

Democrats
Pick Up Steam
in Senate Races

Nate Silver

Oct 14, 2010 1:27 PM CDT

Democrats Pick Up Steam in Senate Races

Reid and Angle a tossup, Manchin and Murray now favored

(Newser) - After a several straight losing weeks, the Democrats gained ground in the battle for the Senate this week, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver. Based on 100,000 simulations, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model now gives the GOP just an 18% chance to take the Senate, down...

Poll: Democrats
Gain on GOP

Oct 5, 2010 8:34 AM CDT

Poll: Democrats Gain on GOP

But they're still way behind

(Newser) - After taking a pounding in the polls for months, Democrats are gaining ground ahead of the 2010 election. Over the last month, they’ve cut the GOP lead in half on the question of which party’s candidates voters support, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll , and Democratic...

Democrats Putting Up a Fight

Election Analysis

Oct 3, 2010 2:40 PM CDT

Democrats Putting Up a Fight

Midterms aren't a done deal yet

(Newser) - Democrats may be on the ropes, but a Republican takeover of the House is hardly a done deal, according to a state-by-state analysis from the New York Times . By now, Republicans had expected to have a variety of races already settled, but Democratic incumbents are proving more tenacious than...

Palin vs. Romney:
Class War Looms for GOP

Analysis

Oct 1, 2010 12:50 PM CDT

Palin vs. Romney: Class War Looms for GOP

The two seem bound to divide Republicans

(Newser) - Remember how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton divided Democrats along class and educational lines in the 2008 primary? Well, Republicans are about to provide their own rendition in the run up to 2012, observes Ronald Brownstein of the National Journal . A new Gallup Poll has Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin...

Public Hates Democrats, Hates GOP Even More

Poll Numbers

Sep 24, 2010 10:05 AM CDT

Public Hates Democrats, Hates GOP Even More

But Republican backers are more likely to vote

(Newser) - It's good news/bad news time, Democrats. Bad news: The public doesn’t much like you. In fact, a whopping 60% disapprove of the job you’re doing in the latest AP poll. Good news: They dislike Republicans even more; 68% disapprove of them, and Sarah Palin and George W. Bush...

Today's Poll:
Paladino 24%,
Cuomo 57%

POLLS, SCHMOLLS

Sep 23, 2010 12:46 PM CDT

Today's Poll: Paladino 24%, Cuomo 57%

Sees momentum for Tea Partier, much greater distance to close

(Newser) - Andrew Cuomo must not know which end is up these days: Just yesterday, a Quinnipiac poll had GOP nominee Carl Paladino "within shouting distance" of the governor's mansion with 43% to Cuomo's 49%. But a Siena poll out today puts those numbers at a much more distant 24%...

Poll: Joe Miller Trouncing Lisa Murkowski

Sep 21, 2010 2:12 PM CDT

Poll: Joe Miller Trouncing Lisa Murkowski

But write-in candidate still grabs impressive 25% in survey

(Newser) - How Republican is Alaska? So Republican that ex-Republican Lisa Murkowski is polling higher as a write-in than the Democratic nominee in the state’s Senate race. In the latest Rasmussen poll , GOP nominee Joe Miller has a commanding 42% lead, followed by Murkowski with 27%, and Democrat Scott McAdams with...

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds
of GOP Takeover

Nate Silver

Sep 17, 2010 7:24 AM CDT

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds of GOP Takeover

Forecasting model gives them just a 15% chance

(Newser) - Just how much did Christine O’Donnell’s win hurt the Republicans’ cause? A lot, says forecasting savant Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to Silver’s model, the chances of a Republican Senate takeover have plummeted from 26% to just 15%. Based on current polls, Silver gives...

Tea Party Has Lots of
'Closet' Fans

Sep 16, 2010 2:13 PM CDT

Tea Party Has Lots of 'Closet' Fans

Among supporters, 40% say they wouldn't attend an event

(Newser) - The Tea Party has a lot of silent admirers out there. In a new Christian Science Monitor poll, 44% of respondents said they saw the movement in a favorable light, even though 40% of those supporters said they’d never attend a Tea Party event. “The general party line...

Young Voters Ditching Democratic Party

Sep 3, 2010 7:15 AM CDT

Young Voters Ditching Democratic Party

Fewer identify with Democrats, despite socially liberal leanings

(Newser) - Democrats might be losing their grip on young voters. Polls shows a drastic drop in 18-to-29-year-olds who identify themselves as Democrats, the New York Times reports. The figure peaked at 62% in July 2008, but slid down to 54% by late last year, before ticking up to 57% this year....

63% of Us Have No Clue Who Emily Post Is

Aug 31, 2010 9:44 AM CDT

63% of Us Have No Clue Who Emily Post Is

But we're very well behaved all the same, says new poll

(Newser) - Our mommas may have raised us right, but they didn't raise us to know who Emily Post is. Some 32% of us have no idea that she's the madam of good manners; 31% think she is either a famed newspaper editor, breakfast cereal inventor, college president, or globe-circling sailor. But...

Poll: 29% Support Tea Party

Aug 27, 2010 7:42 AM CDT

Poll: 29% Support Tea Party

To 54% who do not

(Newser) - The Tea Party has gained ground with the public since April, with almost 3 out of every 10 Americans now supporting it, according to a new CBS News poll. Of course, that still leaves the other 7 in 10 Americans unconvinced—54% said they do not support the movement, while...

Democrats' Grip
on Senate
Getting
Shakier

Nate Silver

Aug 26, 2010 2:31 PM CDT

Democrats' Grip on Senate Getting Shakier

There's a 20% chance they'll lose control

(Newser) - All of a sudden, the Democrats’ grip on the Senate is looking a whole lot more tenuous. According to Nate Silver’s latest number-crunching, there’s a 20% chance the Democrats will lose the Senate outright. Even if they hang on as expected, they’re likely to take heavy losses,...

Republicans Happier
Than Democrats

Aug 17, 2010 1:20 PM CDT

Republicans Happier Than Democrats

Polls also show old happier than young

(Newser) - If you believe the polls, Republicans are consistently happier than Democrats. In a recent Pew survey, 45% of Republicans said they were happy, compared to only 30% of Democrats—and they've been on top since 1972. So the Daily Beast decided to look at some other happiness polls, to find...

Gay-Marriage Support
Snowballing

Nate Silver

Aug 12, 2010 11:42 AM CDT

Gay-Marriage Support Snowballing

Public now probably split about 50-50

(Newser) - Public support for gay marriage seems to be rapidly increasing based on an analysis of polling data dating back to 1988, according to FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver. According to a regression analysis, about 49% of the country probably now favors gay marriage, while 50% are opposed, which is “...

It's a 'JetBlue
Election' for
Voters Angry
About It All

new poll

Aug 11, 2010 7:31 PM CDT

It's a 'JetBlue Election' for Voters Angry About It All

President, Congress, both parties get low marks

(Newser) - The Wall Street Journal and NBC have a new poll out, and—surprise, surprise—Americans are in a seriously foul mood about pretty much everything. Consider the midterms the "JetBlue election," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "Everyone's hurling invective and they're all taking the emergency exit."...

Public Keeps Warming Up to Health Care Reform

Jul 29, 2010 2:58 PM CDT

Public Keeps Warming Up to Health Care Reform

35% now oppose it, down from 41%

(Newser) - The poll numbers for health care reform just keep getting better for Democrats. In a new tracking poll, just 35% say they oppose the landmark law, down from 41% last month, the Washington Post reports, while 50% now hold a favorable view of the law. That’s the best the...

Poll: Obama's Endorsement
Is Worthless

Jul 21, 2010 3:50 PM CDT

Poll: Obama's Endorsement Is Worthless

Prez not much help, but Palin's might actually get you votes

(Newser) - This November, candidates would be better off with an endorsement from Sarah Palin than Barack Obama. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, 12% of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate if Obama campaigns for him, including 28% of Democrats and 8% of Independents. But 30%...