poll numbers

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Public Trusts Obama, Blames GOP for Stimulus Row
Public Trusts Obama, Blames GOP for Stimulus Row
NEW POLL

Public Trusts Obama, Blames GOP for Stimulus Row

(Newser) - GOP attempts to attack Barack Obama on the stimulus don’t appear to be working. According to a New York Times/CBS poll, three quarters of Americans, including 6 in 10 Republicans, believe the president is trying to act in a bipartisan manner, and most blame Republicans for objecting to the...

Paterson's Poll Numbers Tank After Debacle With Caroline

Guv cancels Davos trip to shore up support

(Newser) - New York Gov. David Paterson's poll numbers have hit the toilet as he grapples with a $15.8 billion deficit and reaction to his handling of the Caroline Kennedy Senate decision, reports the New York Daily News. The numbers have so spooked Paterson that he's decided to ditch his trip...

Obama More Popular Than Ever
 Obama More Popular Than Ever 

Obama More Popular Than Ever

Despite Richardson, Geithner, Panetta flaps, 84% approve of transition

(Newser) - Barack Obama’s popularity is at an all-time high, a CNN poll finds, with 84% approving of his transition—up 2% from December despite Bill Richardson’s resignation, Timothy Geithner’s tax issues, and the widely panned Leon Panetta pick. “You know the country is in the middle of...

Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal
Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal

Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame will write two tomes

(Newser) - Polling expert Nate Silver, the statistical mastermind behind FiveThirtyEight.com, has a new number to crunch: $700,000. That’s roughly how much Silver will net in his new two-book deal with Penguin, the New York Observer reports. Silver will pen one tome on the art of prediction, and a...

Polls: Obama Widens National Lead

Democrat opens up 5.8 point lead over John McCain

(Newser) - In the final hours, Barack Obama's national lead in the polls is still inching up, writes Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight.com, to 5.8 points by late last night from 5.4 earlier in the afternoon. Silver's analysis of the latest polls also predicts that Obama stands to win more...

McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver
McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver
Analysis

McCain's Chances Slimmer Than Ever: Silver

But tightening Pennsylvania polls provide lone bright spot

(Newser) - John McCain is hanging by a pretty thin thread, writes statistics guru Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, and that thread is Pennsylvania. Two polls show a slight narrowing in Keystone country; one shows Obama’s lead down to 10 points, while another, right-leaning poll puts it at 5. But with...

Jews Favor Obama, Survey Says, But ...

... by a thinner margin than they supported fellow Dem Kerry in '04

(Newser) - Barack Obama has a big lead among Jewish voters, according to a survey by the American Jewish Committee. But his 57% support, to 30% for John McCain and 13% undecided, is “a bit lower than one would expect,” a group exec tells VOA News. At this time in...

McCain Running in Place: Polls

 McCain 
 Running
 in Place:  
 Polls

ANALYSIS

McCain Running in Place: Polls

Obama has a 96.7% chance of victory, 538 predicts

(Newser) - John McCain isn’t gaining any ground in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, which pegs Obama’s odds of victory at 96.7% to McCain’s 3.3%. As of yesterday, polls predict a final electoral score of 351-187, numbers unchanged from the day before. National tracking polls showed minuscule...

AP Poll: It's a Dead Heat
 AP Poll: It's a Dead Heat 

AP Poll: It's a Dead Heat

(Newser) - Not all the polls are going in Barack Obama's favor. An AP-GfK survey says John McCain has closed the gap with Obama after the last debate by gaining voters among whites and those earning less than $50,000. The poll has the race at 44%-43% in favor of Obama, a...

Poll: Obama 53%, McCain 43%

McCain too busy with attack ads; losing support among base

(Newser) - Barack Obama continues to rise in the polls just as John McCain falls, with the latest numbers giving the Democrat a 10-point lead over his opponent, reports the Washington Post. Voters also gave Obama a clear lead on taxes and leadership for the first time in the election. McCain, meanwhile,...

Debate Boosts Obama in Swing States: Poll
Debate Boosts Obama in Swing States: Poll
ANALYSIS

Debate Boosts Obama in Swing States: Poll

'The Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart'

(Newser) - Barack Obama’s debate performance won over many voters in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac polls found. A margin of 13% to 17% of voters in each state said Obama did a better job in the debate, and many have shifted their support. Over the...

Racism No Longer Throws Off Polls: Study

Voters aren't overstating support for minority candidates

(Newser) - The so-called Bradley effect, in which support for minority candidates in opinion polls isn’t matched by votes in actual elections, has disappeared, Sam Wang writes for the Princeton Election Consortium. A study of polling and outcome data from 133 gubernatorial and senate races in 1989-2006 found that before 1996,...

Oh, No: They Could Tie
 Oh, No: They Could Tie 
ANALYSIS

Oh, No: They Could Tie

The 1% chance of Obama and McCain fighting to a draw has web humming

(Newser) - It’s not inconceivable that the 2008 election could end in an electoral tie. OK, granted, the odds are roughly 99-1, but that 1% chance is enough to send politics geeks flocking to sites such as FiveThirtyEight.com, which conduct complex electoral simulations based on the latest polling, the Wall ...

Convention Bounce Small, Fading Fast
 Convention Bounce 
 Small, Fading Fast 
ANALYSIS

Convention Bounce Small, Fading Fast

Polls see Obama's approval grow by below-average 3%-4%, then diminish over weekend

(Newser) - Barack Obama enjoyed a noticeable, but below-average, bounce in opinion polls after last week’s Democratic National Convention, Politico reports—but the gains appear to be already diminishing. Obama has risen 4% in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, 3% in a CBS survey—smaller than the average 5-6% convention bounce....

Biden By the Numbers: A Solid Choice
Biden By the Numbers: A Solid Choice

Biden By the Numbers: A Solid Choice

VP will bring Dems together and garner Independent votes

(Newser) - Some argued Hillary Clinton was Barack Obama’s best VP choice because she could unite the Dems. But in crunching Rasmussen's favorable-unfavorable numbers, the New Republic finds Joe Biden can do that almost as well, while pulling in more independent voters and keeping Obama backers in the fold. Biden scores...

Noonan: Why McCain Is Rising
 Noonan: Why McCain Is Rising
OPINION

Noonan: Why McCain Is Rising

(Newser) - The race for the White House has just become a “real” one, with John McCain climbing in the polls and Barack Obama sinking. Why? Because people are finally “paying attention,” writes Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal. In McCain, Americans are seeing a familiar face: the...

Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead
 Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead

Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead

Negative campaign erases Obama's July edge

(Newser) - John McCain has erased Barack Obama’s 7-point July advantage to take a 46%-41% lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, Reuters reports. McCain has turned around a perceived  weakness on economy to now be favored by a 9% margin on the economy. The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday, as...

Running Mate 'Bounce' Doesn't Climb Very High
Running Mate 'Bounce' Doesn't Climb Very High
analysis

Running Mate 'Bounce' Doesn't Climb Very High

Poll surge noticeable but brief: Gallup

(Newser) - Much ink has been spilled over Barack Obama and John McCain’s upcoming VP selections, but a running mate is not a game-changing choice, the Chicago Tribune reports. History suggests the effect on opinion polls will be noticeable but not huge: Gallup shows recent candidates getting an average 5% bump...

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama
Low-Income Workers Favor Obama

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama

Most doubt outcome of election will change their personal finances

(Newser) - Low-income workers favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a whopping 2 to 1 margin, a new Washington Post poll shows, but they doubt that Obama or any other politician will improve their lives. Obama owes much of his edge to overwhelming support from black and Hispanic voters, but even...

Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip
Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip

Polls Show No Bump From Obama Trip

He still holds 5% edge; McCain attacks don't stick either

(Newser) - Neither Barack Obama’s foreign tour nor John McCain’s harsh attacks of it have made a dent in the polls, CNN reports. In the first poll conducted entirely after the trip, Obama holds a 51-44% lead, a mincing step up from last month’s 50-45% edge. His numbers on...

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