Op-Ed: Prediction Markets Exploit a Betting Loophole

As the NCAA tournament enters crunch time, Mick Mulvaney argues there's a fast-growing sideline to March Madness that looks like sports betting, walks like sports betting—and is quietly dodging state rules on sports betting. In an opinion piece for the Washington Post, the former Trump chief of staff zeroes in on "prediction markets" such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which frame their offerings as financial "contracts" regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not as wagers governed by state gambling law. The practical effect, he writes: Users as young as 18 can put money on point spreads and winners, even in states that either require bettors to be 21 or haven't legalized sports betting at all.

Mulvaney says this workaround undermines state policy decisions on age limits, consumer protections, licensing, and tax revenue, while operators heavily market to college students and even younger influencers. With Nevada and Arizona already taking legal action against Kalshi, he predicts a fight that could land at the Supreme Court. "When 18-year-olds can risk money to 'predict' the outcome of a game that they cannot legally bet on in the same state, the issue isn't what we call it," writes Mulvaney. "It's that the system isn't working." Read his full piece.