China's appetite for oil may be nearing its high-water mark far sooner than many expected. Zhen Wang, who heads the research institute of state-owned energy giant CNOOC, told the CERAWeek conference in Houston that the country's crude demand could crest "almost this year," well ahead of a widely cited 2030 timeline, reports Nikkei Asia. The milestone is significant: China is the world's top oil importer, notes Reuters, and it has accounted for about 60% of the growth in the demand for global oil over the past 10 years. The trend is driven by a surge in renewables, which now make up more than half of China's power generation capacity, as well as slower economic growth and a rapid pivot to electric vehicles and natural-gas trucks.
Geopolitics are reinforcing the shift. The crisis involving Iran and the potential disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the exposure that comes with heavy reliance on imported oil, much of it bound for Asia. An analyst with S&P Global tells Nikkei Asia that a prolonged closure of the strait could further depress China's oil demand this year, buttressing the prediction made by Wang of an earlier-than-expected peak. That domestic trajectory contrasts with the International Energy Agency's view that global oil demand will keep climbing until mid-century, even as China leans harder into massive wind, solar, and battery projects.
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