WH: There Probably Won't Be an Inflation Report Next Month

The government shutdown, now in its fourth week, likely means there won't be an inflation report next month for the first time in more than seven decades, the White House said Friday, leaving Wall Street and the Federal Reserve without crucial information about consumer prices. "Because surveyors cannot deploy to the field, the White House has learned there will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history," the Trump administration said in an email, per the AP. Some of the inflation data is collected electronically, but most is gathered in person by government employees who visit stores across the country.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the inflation report, has already reduced the data collected each month because the Trump administration's hiring freeze left some cities without surveyors. The announcement follows Friday's release of September inflation data, which showed prices ticked higher but remained lower than many economists had expected. That report, which was delayed by nine days from its originally scheduled release, was based on data that was collected before the shutdown began Oct. 1. In past shutdowns, the consumer price index—the government's principal inflation measure—was compiled based on partial data. But it may be too late to gather even that level of information, the Labor Department said.

The disruption comes at a particularly challenging time for the Federal Reserve, the government agency tasked with keeping prices in check. It sharply raised its key short-term interest rate in 2022 and 2023 to combat the worst inflation spike in four decades. In addition, the central bank is increasingly concerned a faltering job market could lead to a recession. Now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others on the Fed's interest-rate setting panel are slowly reducing the rate, as inflation has fallen sharply from its peak three years ago.

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Yet Powell and other Fed officials still want to keep a close eye on inflation. Powell has said that the tariffs could cause just a one-time increase in prices, rather than an ongoing inflationary trend, but they'll want to closely monitor data to ensure that's so. The government is also not collecting the figures it will need to issue the next jobs report, which is scheduled for release Nov. 7. Once the government does reopen, the BLS can ask businesses for their payroll data from the middle of October, the time of month when they usually ask for such figures. It's unlikely, however, that they'll be able to retroactively gather pricing data for this month.