A simple genetic test may soon forecast a child's future risk of obesity, offering a chance for targeted prevention before unhealthy habits take root. The finding comes from a new study, published Monday in Nature Medicine, that analyzed genetic data from over 5 million people, making it the largest such effort of its kind, per NBC News. Using this data, scientists developed a risk score—a calculation based on genetic variants tied to a higher body mass index (BMI) in adulthood. The score, researchers say, can identify children at higher obesity risk even before age 5, a window when interventions may be most effective. "Childhood is the best time to intervene," said co-author Ruth Loos of the University of Copenhagen.
Currently, more than 40% of US adults are obese, and global obesity rates have soared in recent decades. While the new score nearly doubles the predictive power of earlier methods for people of European descent—explaining about 17.6% of adult BMI risk, up from 8.5%—it is less effective in other groups—explaining just 2.2% of the risk for rural Ugandans, for example—highlighting a need for more diverse genetic data. Still, genetics is just part of the picture, with Loos noting that lifestyle factors like diet, exercise, and environment account for the majority of risk. The test is not ready for clinical use and, for now, offers one piece of the obesity risk puzzle—similar to how blood pressure signals heart disease risk. The next step is to collect broader data so the test might improve predictions for everyone.
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