UN Report Warns US Cuts Could Bring Millions of AIDS Deaths

Years of American-led investment in AIDS programs has reduced the number of people killed by the disease to the lowest levels in more than three decades and provided life-saving medicines for some of the world's most vulnerable people. But in the past six months, the sudden withdrawal of US funding has caused a "systemic shock," UN officials warned Thursday, adding that if the funding isn't replaced, there could be more than 4 million AIDS-related deaths and 6 million more HIV infections by 2029, the AP reports.

• The early effects: The new UNAIDS report said the funding losses have "already destabilized supply chains, led to the closure of health facilities, left thousands of health clinics without staff, set back prevention programs, disrupted HIV testing efforts, and forced many community organizations to reduce or halt their HIV activities." It said that there are fears other major donors will scale back their support, reversing decades of progress against AIDS worldwide—and that the strong multilateral cooperation is in jeopardy because of wars, geopolitical shifts, and climate change.
• A 'lifeline' removed: The $4 billion that the US pledged for the global HIV response for 2025 disappeared suddenly in January, when President Trump ordered that all foreign aid be suspended and later moved to shutter the US AID agency. Andrew Hill, an HIV expert at the University of Liverpool who is not connected to the UN, said that while Trump is entitled to spend US money as he sees fit, "any responsible government would have given advance warning so countries could plan," instead of stranding patients in Africa where clinics were closed overnight. UNAIDS called the AIDS relief program launched under President George W. Bush a "lifeline" for countries with high HIV rates.

• The gap: In 2024, there were about 630,000 AIDS-related deaths worldwide, per a UNAIDS estimate—the figure has remained about the same since 2022 after peaking at about 2 million deaths in 2004. Even before the US funding cuts, progress against curbing HIV was uneven. UNAIDS said that half of all new infections are in sub-Saharan Africa. Tom Ellman of Doctors Without Borders said that while some poorer countries were now moving to fund more of their own HIV programs, it would be impossible to fill the gap left by the US. "There's nothing we can do that will protect these countries from the sudden, vicious withdrawal of support from the US," said Ellman, head of the group's South Africa medical unit.
• Lack of information: Experts also fear another significant loss—data. The US paid for most HIV surveillance in African countries, including hospital, patient and electronic records, all of which has now abruptly ceased, according to Dr. Chris Beyrer, director of the Global Health Institute at Duke University. "Without reliable data about how HIV is spreading, it will be incredibly hard to stop it," he said.