Canada Votes, and Trump Is 'the X Factor'

A record 7.3 million Canadians voted early in the federal election, but for those with ballots still to cast, Monday is the day. Election Day sees Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal Party leader and a political newcomer, attempting to extend his tenure beyond mere months, while facing a challenge from a career politician dubbed "Trump lite." Here's what to know:

• The parties: Canadians vote for a lawmaker to represent their riding, or electoral district, not for a leader directly. Lawmakers hail from five major parties: The Liberal Party, Conservative Party, New Democratic Party, Green Party, and the Bloc Québécois, specific to Quebec.

• Huge shift: Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives had been favored to win the election until early this year when "Trump's steep tariffs on Canada, and threats to its sovereignty, dramatically transformed the race," per CNN. "The threats, the annexation talk, all of that has been a huge motivator for left of center voters," an analyst tells the BBC.
• Prediction: Now, Carney's Liberals are expected to win a fourth successive election, possibly gaining the 172 seats needed to form a majority government, though its lead has shortened to just a few points in the latest CBC poll, per the New York Times.
• The issues: Canada's economic future is front and center amid housing unaffordability and the cost-of-living crisis. But the election is also about Trump. "Trump has been the X factor in this campaign," as one political strategist tells USA Today.
• Carney: The former central banker replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal Party leader in March and has moved to deepen Canada's ties to allies other than the US while organizing retaliatory tariffs. After leading the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit, he's "pitching himself as the experienced crisis manager that Canada needs as it navigates Trump's chaos," per the Washington Post.

• Poilievre: First elected in 2004, he's been labeled "Trump lite" with his populist "Canada First" policy, talk of cutting taxes and bureaucracy, and attacks on "woke ideology" and the media, per CNN and the BBC. But he's tried to distance himself from the US leader while urging a change of government after what he calls the "lost Liberal decade."
• Liberal vs. Conservative: Canadians appear to be turning toward its two main parties in ways not seen for decades. "If the Liberals and Conservatives both succeed in getting over 38% of the vote share nationally, as polls suggest is likely, it would be the first time that has happened since 1975," per the BBC.

(More Canada stories.)