He Made $50M Betting on 'Neighbor Effect' in US Race

One of the happiest people about the results of Tuesday's vote isn't a Republican—or even an American. Instead, it's a Frenchman known only as Theo, reports the Wall Street Journal. Theo, notes Business Insider, is on track to make about $50 million because he correctly bet that Donald Trump would win the Electoral College and the popular vote, and romp in the swing states. "Unlike most armchair political commentators, he put his money where his mouth was, betting more than $30 million," per the Journal, which has been corresponding with the trader nicknamed the "Trump whale."

The newspaper has confirmed Theo made his bets on the Polymarket betting platform, though he's opting to stay anonymous. Among the few details known about him are that he is a wealthy financial trader and a French national. A key to his success: Theo tells the Journal he felt US polls were overstating Kamala Harris' chances and commissioned an unnamed "major pollster" to measure what's known as the "neighbor effect." Meaning, the pollster asked people not just how they plan to vote but how they think their neighbor will vote. Everything pointed to Trump. "Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect," he says. (More Election 2024 stories.)