Prediction market Kalshi dangled what looked like a big win, then yanked it back, some bettors complain. After news broke of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's killing, users who had wagered he'd be "out as Supreme Leader" by April saw green check marks on their screens—until Kalshi froze the $54 million that had been wagered, citing a rule against trades "directly tied to death." The reversal set off a backlash from bettors who say the platform changed the rules midstream and misled them with vague disclaimers and aggressive promotion of the contract; indeed, the Washington Post notes Kalshi featured the trade on its homepage and in push notifications, and the Wall Street Journal reports CEO Tarek Mansour highlighted it via his X account.
In an X post, Mansour insisted that "in these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules." Kalshi is reimbursing bets and fees tied to the Khamenei market, eating about $2.2 million, and says it will clarify its "death carveout" in future listings.
But some see inconsistencies at play: The Post notes that Kalshi users who bet former President Carter wouldn't attend President Trump's inauguration got their payouts when Carter did not show up—because he had died. The controversy is intensifying the political and ethical scrutiny of prediction markets. Sen. Chris Murphy is drafting legislation to broadly bar markets on government actions, warning of insider trading and perverse incentives. He puts it plainly: "People shouldn't be rooting for people to die because they placed a bet."
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